How has political polling adjusted to new technology, changing voter habits, and a fragmented media world? In this episode of GovExperts Insights, host Chris Britton speaks with John Vinson, Senior Vice President at Ragnar Research. Together, they explore how polling is evolving and what campaigns, candidates, and citizens should take from the data.
“Accuracy is our currency—Election Day is our report card.” — John Vinson
Vinson draws on a decade of campaign experience and several years of polling leadership. He explains how campaigns use research to build clear message plans, test attacks, and direct limited resources. In addition, he outlines key differences between private polling and the public surveys that often dominate news coverage.
Tune in to the full conversation: John Vinson: The Evolution of Political Polling
Key Insights
- From landlines to mobile-first research: Polling now relies heavily on mobile phones. As a result, contact windows are wider and outreach methods must adapt to reach representative voters.
- Fragmented media raises the stakes: As audiences shift to digital platforms, polls must identify not only what voters think but also where they receive their information.
- Benchmarks vs. brushfires: Early benchmark polls shape a campaign’s message plan. Meanwhile, late-cycle brushfire polls measure whether ads and field efforts actually move voters.
- Regression testing and message impact: Ragnar uses regression tools to learn which messages truly shift opinions. This helps campaigns invest in efforts that move numbers, not noise.
- “Don’t trust polling you don’t pay for”: Vinson notes that campaign and media polls have different incentives. Therefore, strong methodology—especially live calling, mobile reach, and proper stratification—remains essential.
- Covid’s political aftershocks: The pandemic reshaped key issues, energized school board activism, and shifted party registration patterns in states such as Florida and Tennessee.
About John Vinson
John Vinson is Senior Vice President at Ragnar Research, one of the nation’s leading political and corporate polling firms. He spent nearly a decade working on campaigns across the country before moving into polling in 2019. His experience as both a consumer and producer of polling shapes his approach to survey design, message testing, and client strategy.
Why It Matters
Today’s information environment is crowded and often confusing. Because of this, high-quality polling offers a rare, disciplined look into what voters actually think. Reliable research helps leaders set priorities, refine messages, and avoid costly mistakes. Likewise, understanding polling methods helps citizens separate meaningful insights from headline noise.
Episode Resources
- Ragnar Research
- GovExperts Insights archive – additional interviews on campaigns, policy, and strategy
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