What does policy uncertainty really cost entrepreneurs? In this episode of GovExperts Insights, host Chris Britton sits down with Larry Berlin, former CFO and longtime startup investor, to explore how taxes, tariffs, and regulation shape the calculus of innovation. Berlin—whose experience spans the Chicago trading pits to mentoring high-growth startups—argues that uncertainty, not simply high taxes or tight credit, is the hidden killer of investment.
“It’s not the tax rate—it’s the uncertainty that kills deals.” — Larry Berlin
From federal policy swings to labor laws and state-level regulation, Berlin explains why compliance headaches often outweigh capital shortages for founders—and why even small changes in public policy can ripple through every business model.
Tune in to the full conversation: Larry Berlin: Policy, Risk, and the Price of Growth
Key Insights
- Uncertainty drives discount rates: Investors can model higher taxes or inflation, but unpredictable policy environments make valuation math impossible.
- Labor law is the top startup pain point: Hiring and firing restrictions, not wage levels, often determine where founders build.
- State vs. federal dynamics: Conflicting laws in areas like cannabis or AI regulation create drag on emerging industries.
- Boards as “policy radar”: Strong boards monitor not just finances but the regulatory horizon—alerting founders before costly surprises.
- Best policy for entrepreneurship: Deregulation and lower entry barriers, not subsidies or cheap capital.
- States as laboratories: Entrepreneurs “vote with their feet,” moving toward regulatory predictability.
About the Larry Berlin
Larry Berlin is an angel investor, startup mentor, and former corporate finance executive. His career has spanned private equity, fintech, and policy advocacy. He currently leads Blue Point Advisory Services and serves as a longtime mentor in the University of Chicago Booth School’s New Venture Challenge. Berlin has helped startups like Venmo, Braintree, and Simple Mills raise over $1.7 billion in capital and generate more than $10 billion in returns.
Why It Matters
Policy doesn’t just set the rules—it determines risk. Whether it’s a startup trying to price its first product or a multinational planning expansion, inconsistent regulatory environments raise the cost of capital, slow innovation, and consolidate markets in favor of incumbents. For founders, boards, and policymakers alike, Berlin’s message is clear: predictability is the real competitive advantage.
Episode Resources
- Blue Point Advisory Services
- Free to Choose – Milton Friedman
- The Road to Serfdom – Friedrich Hayek
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